Hi Barry,
I think it is very hard to give a general answer to this question. I don't think you will get around building an actual prototype. There are so many parameters which can impact the result, eg the hardware - Running the Lucene index on a crappy machine, while MySQL runs on a high performance server. A lot will also depend on the proper configuration of Hibernate Core and Search. There are a lot of parameters which you can tune to make things faster. And at the same time a wrong configuration can slow you down.
You should be able to build a minimal indexing and searching application with very little code.
--Hardy
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